Gender Stratification The Classification Of People Based...

Gender stratification refers to the classification of people based on their biological features such as their sex. The term â€Å"gender stratification† is generally used to refer to the situation in which men are valuable than women. In this situation, men have greater access to prestige, wealth, and power in a society. Different societies tend to have different levels of gender stratification. In the United States, the main consequence of gender stratification is economic and social inequality between men and women. Men and women in the United States are not equal economically. Men make more money than women who have similar levels of education or work experience, due to gender stratification. For example, women are often steered into careers like teaching and nursing that are well-paid, prestigious but less male dominated careers. Gender stratification leads to more inequality, both economic and social, between men and women. For example, women are still expected to bea r more of the burden of child care and housework even when both spouses work. This helps create a situation in which women are not free to spend the kind of time at work that is needed to truly get ahead in the most competitive situations. Very few of us accurately describe the difference between ethnicity and race, simply because we define them as the same. While the meaning of both words can appear very similar, there are differences. Ethnicity is not justShow MoreRelatedDoes Social Inequality Exist in Jamaica3694 Words   |  15 Pagesanalyze and discuss the validity of this statement based on current events in the Jamaican society.† Social Inequality is the existence of socially created inequalities; it occurs when ideology and power combine to make one group of people feel inferior to another. 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For example, approaches by Gelles and Straus, who have many essays andRead MoreCurriculum Development10775 Words   |  44 Pagesensure that all students, regardless of their previous achievement are able to achieve their full potential. This section examines the diversity of students in the LLS and some of the factors that affect learning and achievement such as race, class, gender and sexuality. Section Three: Curriculum Design for Inclusive practice identifies three current approaches to curriculum design and asks a fundamental philosophical question: What counts as an educated 19 year old today? It then examines whatRead MoreThe Importance of Demography to Development11868 Words   |  48 Pagesstudy of the origin, development, organization, and functioning of human society; the science of the fundamental laws of social relationships, institutions, etc. It generally concerns itself with the social rules and processes that bind and separate people not only as individuals, but as members of associations, groups, and institutions, and includes the examination of the organization and development of human social life. The sociological field of interest ranges from the analysis of short contactsRead MoreThe Speech Community.Pdf11808 Words   |  48 Pages It has been denied to other cities (London; Wardhaugh 1998, p.123), but used for Anglo-Saxon England (Labov 1982, p.35); for urban immigrants, as distinct from both their source and target groups (Kerswill 1994); and for the â€Å"national unity of a people† (Dittmar 1976, p.106). Cutting across geographic and class line s, it has been used of very general assemblages such as children (Romaine 1982, p.7) and women (Coates 1993, p.140), as well as specific and temporary ones such as members of a jury (DurantRead MoreASAM 5 Notes Essay6590 Words   |  27 PagesAllows us to see the wholeness of a life we cannot see in our own life Forms: Realism, modernism, post modernism Froitzan on why he writes: I want to bring pleasure with everything I write†¦    On minority literature- Deleuze and Guattar: 3 features The deterriorializtion of a major language through a minor literature written in the major language from marginalized or minoritarian position The thoroughly political nature of a minor literature Its collective, enunciation value The aestheticRead MoreThe Historical Transformation of Work14383 Words   |  58 PagesTHE HISTORICAL TRANSFORMATION OF WORK 1 Chapter contents Work in pre-industrial societies Work in industrial capitalist societies Main features of work in industrial capitalist societies Capitalist industrialization and the primacy of work Crises and industrial capitalism Technological and organizational change The rise of trade unions Women and work in the development of industrial capitalism The dominant conception of work in industrial capitalism Summary and conclusions Further reading QuestionsRead MoreFactors That Affect the Academic Performance of the Student Using Computer11401 Words   |  46 Pagestheir surroundings and wish to be active in class. There are some students who are afraid of saying the wrong answer and worry about how other students will view about them. The first year of college is an emotional and transitional period for young people. Students must adopt the changes that happened in their environment, continue working with others and maintain a good relationship with them. In this research, we would like to show if having a poor or average performance in class of a first year

The Most Popular Comprehensive Essay Samples

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Counseling the Infertile Couple Essay Example For Students

Counseling the Infertile Couple Essay Counseling the Infertile Couple Essay Being a pastor of family ministries with three healthy children, it is hard for me to counsel other couples on infertility. I have also been on the other side of the table facing these infertility choices in my first marriage. There was a choice we faced regarding selective termination if we did conceive after hormone therapy. In a way, I am glad we did not conceive because my ex-wife and I opposed each other on this procedure. I was opposed to the procedure while my wife accepted it. As a pastor having to counsel others with the problem of infertility, there are a lot of choices to be made regarding infertility. I believe God has given doctors the technology to assist couples in the process of conceiving a child. How far a couple goes to conceive a child is the problem we are facing as Christians in todays culture. Assisted reproductive technologies allow many couples with infertility problems to bear children. But with the plethora of options come tough decisions. Couples must weigh the financial, emotional and physical costs of each treatment against its chances of success. The ethical ramifications of creating life in a lab is also a consideration Christian couples often look to their faith for guidance. God has given us the job of exercising dominion over all the earth (Gen. 1:26), which includes using medical technologies to assist us in reproduction. The first step in infertility treatment is diagnostic testing for would-be parents. Treatments may be as simple as drugs to stimulate ovulation or as complicated as in vitro fertilization. Some couples may achieve pregnancy quickly, but others may have to decide to pursue assisted reproductive technologies. Since the first test-tube baby was born, in vitro fertilization has become a common procedure in fertility treatment. A key issue couples considering in vitro fertilization is the use of their embryos. The woman often produces more eggs than can be used during a single IVF attempt. The extra embryos can be frozen to use in subsequent procedures, or a couple may have them destroyed, kept in storage indefinitely or donated to another infertile couple. Another issue is how many embryos should be placed back in the uterus. The fewer used, the lower chances of multiple pregnancies and a higher risk for complications. The more used, the couple faces the issue of more embryos taking hold in the uterus and having to decide terminating one or more of the fetuses to give the remaining ones a better chance of survival. Each couple must decide how many eggs to fertilize, what to do with extra embryos and how many to put back. I can explain the medical aspects of conception, but the couple will have to decide what their definition of conception is. They will be the ones deciding when life starts and at what stage life begins in the cells. I would urge couples to fully understand any procedure theyre considering and to be sure the procedure honors the dignity of human life, even at the one-celled stage. In my view, that is when human life begins. A couple can undergo fertility treatments without compromising their beliefs. With advances in IVF procedures, fewer embryos can be placed back in the uterus while taking full advantage of the chances of a possible pregnancy. For those couples that are concerned with what to do with their frozen embryos, embryo adoption is becoming more popular. Or couples may limit the number of embryos created to those needed for the specific procedure. This may be more costly, especially if several treatments are needed. But if a couple were concerned with the morality of frozen embryos, this would be a viable option. .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59 , .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59 .postImageUrl , .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59 .centered-text-area { min-height: 80px; position: relative; } .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59 , .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59:hover , .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59:visited , .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59:active { border:0!important; } .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59 .clearfix:after { content: ""; display: table; clear: both; } .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59 { display: block; transition: background-color 250ms; webkit-transition: background-color 250ms; width: 100%; opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #95A5A6; } .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59:active , .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59:hover { opacity: 1; transition: opacity 250ms; webkit-transition: opacity 250ms; background-color: #2C3E50; } .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59 .centered-text-area { width: 100%; position: relative ; } .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59 .ctaText { border-bottom: 0 solid #fff; color: #2980B9; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0; padding: 0; text-decoration: underline; } .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59 .postTitle { color: #FFFFFF; font-size: 16px; font-weight: 600; margin: 0; padding: 0; width: 100%; } .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59 .ctaButton { background-color: #7F8C8D!important; color: #2980B9; border: none; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 26px; moz-border-radius: 3px; text-align: center; text-decoration: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-height: 80px; background: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/plugins/intelly-related-posts/assets/images/simple-arrow.png)no-repeat; position: absolute; right: 0; top: 0; } .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59:hover .ctaButton { background-color: #34495E!important; } .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59 .centered-text { display: table; height: 80px; padding-left : 18px; top: 0; } .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59 .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59-content { display: table-cell; margin: 0; padding: 0; padding-right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-align: middle; width: 100%; } .ub1b8cddd9e27b91f0d147f4ac11efa59:after { content: ""; display: block; clear: both; } READ: Effects Of War Essay Another concern with IVF is how the sperm is taken from the male donor. Clinics have rooms with magazines and videos for the male to use to help in collecting semen samples. This is a moral problem that must be addressed by the husband and wife. There are other options that a male can use to collect the sperm sample. Samples can also be collected from a man who is aroused simply by the idea or presence of his own wife. This .

What Is the Feminist Perspective of Isabella Essay Example

What Is the Feminist Perspective of Isabella Essay Elliot saying of her although highly strung in temperament, [Isabella] was a woman of great character and determination, she knew her own mind. I would therefore hypothesis that the feminist perspective of Isabella would be favorable and as a great woman of history. Lies portrays Isabella as a woman who knows exactly what she is doing and all her actions are purposeful and done to benefit her Interests. She saw Isabella as very aware of her Limitations as a female and thus presented herself and Ferdinand as equals to strengthen her Queens, hence Glenn It more power. Lies sees Isabella as a woman who was very pious and acted In many situations, such as the Reconstitutes of Granddad and the many other holy wars she embarked on, because she believed It was the will of god. Isabella used holy wars to justify her reign and enhance her power regularly, as was the situation when she declared war against Portugal, her piety and belief this was gods wish bought the We will write a custom essay sample on What Is the Feminist Perspective of Isabella specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on What Is the Feminist Perspective of Isabella specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on What Is the Feminist Perspective of Isabella specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer Castling churches support and this was a key factor in her triumphing over the Archbishop of Toledo and Portugal. Lies believes that Isabella I of Castle is a global figure who has and shall continue to outlast her time period, she is still revered in many places in modern society-this is especially so in Spain. Heisenberg gives another feminist perspective on Isabella, one which is less favorable. Heisenberg argues that she gives herself such a heroic reputation by editing the chronicles and therefore portraying herself as a strong woman, miscalculating herself, and missing Henry IV-her predecessor- making her seem Spains rescuer. Isabella diminishes Henry greatly, depicting him as a monster, insinuating that he had Illicit relationships with Bellman De la Guava and Joanna of Portugal and that he Was not all man. Pelican is a chronicler which Heisenberg brings to attention, he became uncomfortable with writing the chronicles with rose tinted spectacles and began to write for Ferdinand, he contradicts what most of chronicles of the time say and Insults women. He describes women as weak creatures prompted by desire, that they were masters of deception and pretence, Indirectly insulting Isabella and dismissing all the writings of her being a strong independent ruler. The fact that Heisenberg has Introduced this alternate view on Isabella shows how she does not fully agree that Isabella was a picture perfect queen, as the majority of chronicles would have you believe. On the contrary, another chronicler Vulgar consistently wrote In favor of Isabella pronouncing her as willful, strong and controlling by her own discretion. Hellbender still considers these two pollens and looks at other evidence that shows of how Isabella attempted to change peoples Image of her, for example she carried an unsheathed sword ahead of her at her coronation, a phallic symbol, which again masculine her to give her more power and respect from those whom she ruled over, such as the Cortes, and her enemies to show her strength. Isabella is said to have patriarchal views of authority and centralism, and as such had to portray herself as a masculine figure, capable of ruling a country and leading it to victory and loggers seems to ample Isolable never seen appears to Delves much success. Of the empowering, admirable characteristics of her were either emphasized or completely fabricated in chronicles edited by her to ensure she was remembered with respect and admiration. Both Lies and Heisenberg have similarities in their views, both agreeing that Isabella edited the chronicles, however Heisenberg seems to think they were more than altered slightly to give a more favorable view. Linked to this they also believe that she was clearly wise in the way of image making, both in he chronicles and in her time period she altered her image to ensure people thought of her as she wished. Isabella piety is reflected in both of their views, both proclaiming that she imitated both Mary and John the Baptist-believing she had Gods favor. They are also undisputed in the conviction that she had to beat the Archbishop of Toledo in order to become successful. Personally I believe that, like Lies, Isabella was successful and had very admirable qualities and that she was indeed pious. However I do think that although she may have believed that she was doing Gods will in some cases such as the Reconstitutes, the war against Portugal and the Archbishop of Toledo I believe she claimed it was a holy war to gain support in a strongly Roman Catholic Spain as she was a very tactile, intelligent woman. I agree with Heisenberg that she was continuously trying to portray herself as masculine to give her more control and power. I am unanimous with Heisenberg and Lies that Isabella did edit the chronicles to seem more favorable to her.

Probation Officers

Probation Officers Free Online Research Papers The field in Criminal Justice that I have chosen will take me a few steps to get there but I do have a plan. The beginning of my plan starts out here at IBC and ends at the juvenile probation department. In the state of Indiana you have to have a bachelors degree to become one so I will have a few steps on the way. I’m sure I will have to get some help with these steps but I am willing to ask the questions and the take the time that it will take to get me to the end of my plan. One of the things that I think I can bring to this profession is a strong willingness to help. I’m sure I’m not the first to think this but I think I can make a difference. Kids are our future and so many people forget that. The children that are our gangsters and our murders today are the people that are our future. Just think about that for a moment. Is that the kind of would that you want your children and grand-children growing up in? Think back to the day when you were a kid. Remember when no one ever locked their front door? Or a woman could walk down the street and not have to worry about getting raped or mugged. Times have really changed. Now everyone puts dead bolts on all their doors and a woman never goes anywhere alone. Again I ask is this the kind of world you want your daughter or grand-daughter living in? These days the criminals are getting younger and younger. Hopefully we can do something about this before it is to late. We have to get out children and future children going down a different path and making better choices. I have chosen juvenile probation because I think if you get to a child soon enough you can make a change in them. They can start going down the right path and make good choices. Qualifications for Probation Officers 1. A probation officer shall be at least twenty-one (21) years of age. 2. A probation officer shall be an American citizen 3. A person who submits an application to take the examination for prospective probation officers shall have a baccalaureate degree from an accredited college or university or be in the last semester of a baccalaureate degree program. A person may not serve as a probation officer until he or she has received a baccalaureate degree. 4. A person who submits an application to take the examination for prospective probation officers shall be a person of good moral character. 5. A person shall take and pass an examination for prospective probation officers prior to employment or within six months from the date that the person is first employed as a probation officer. a.) A person who fails the examination shall be permitted to take the examination a second time. The second examination shall not be given until ninety (90) days after the first examination, during which time the person shall not be permitted to serve as a probation officer. b.) A person who fails the examination a second time shall not be permitted to take the examination or serve as a probation officer until one year after the second examination. 6. A probation officer shall be required to attend an orientation program conducted by the Indiana Judicial Center within one year from the date that the officer is employed. 7. The qualifications established by the Judicial Conference of Indiana shall be minimum qualifications only, and a trial court judge may require higher qualifications for probation officers. 8. The qualifications established by the Judicial Conference of Indiana shall be effective on July 1, 1984. The qualifications shall not apply to persons who have been certified as eligible to serve as probation officers in Indiana courts prior to July 1, 1984. Personal Attributes I think the personal attributes that I could bring to this kind of job are many. I have a lot of good qualities about my self if I can brag for a moment. I am a strong willed person and I would like to think I can read people pretty well also. Through the years I have had to deal with legal problems in my life. I’m not sure if that is a good or bad thing. And one of my children is following in my footsteps which has caused me to learn more about the probationary part of the law then I care to know right now. But when I think about it the way my life has gone and all the twists and turns I have had had brought me to this part in my life that has caused me to make this choice in occupations. I can sometime be a hard person or I can be an understanding person it just depends on what the situation calls for at the time. I am also very good at multi tasking. In the line of work that I am in now I have had to learn how to do several things at one time. With the way the caseloads are now and they will be worse by the time I get there I think that a person that is able to multi task well is going to do better at the job than a person that is not able to multi task well. Being a parent to begin with is a good attribute. Especially with having my three children of my own I have learned a lot about what to expect from a delinquent child. I have learned what signs to look for and I am not the kind of person that is easily fooled. I am determined person and I don’t like to be defeated so I work hard at getting my job done and doing a well at it. Challenges I covered a lot of the challenges in the description of my paper but I will try to elaborate it some more here for you. The biggest challenge I have found with the career I am interested in is over worked and under staffed. The work load is getting heavier and the clients are getting younger each year. The probation officer doesn’t have time to do their job the way that they should. They should be able to have closer supervision with each of their clients. If the probation officer could keep a better watch on the clients then he/she could make sure that they were doing what they were ordered to do by the courts. Another important challenge that probation officers have to deal with that many people do not think about when dealing with juveniles is their own on-the-job safety. There is a growing perception that the work of juvenile probation is increasingly dangerous. Almost one-third of the survey respondents reported that they had been assaulted on the job at some point in their careers. When asked whether, during the course of their duties, they were ever concerned about personal safety, 42 percent of the respondents reported that they were usually or always concerned. Balancing juvenile probation officers’ safety and the safety of the public with probationers’ needs as a major challenge. Many departments have developed creative and successful intensive supervision and school-based programs that target special populations of probationers; however. There is increased pressure to do much more community-based programming. The safety of each probation office becomes more of an issue yearly because the kids get younger and the crimes seem to get more serious with each passing day. If I were a probation officer now I think I would fear for my life at times. Interview My interview was with the Chief Probation Officer of Allen County Juvenile Center. She was very informative and happy to comply with my interview. I had many questions for her and among those questions was â€Å"What are the state requirements to be a probation officer?† The answer to this question will be answered in the requirements part of my paper. I asked Jamie, â€Å"What are some of your basic duties as a probation officer?† There are two different types of probation officer. The first type is an Intake Officer. An Intake Officer is responsible for conduction and completing Preliminary Inquiries, completing Predispositional Reports, coordinating cases for court hearings, and monitoring defendants pending hearings. The second is a Field Officers, they essentially works with probationers to assure satisfactory completion of fall probation requirements as ordered by the court. They do more crisis intervention and are required to file violations and prepare court documents if the probationer violates. Next she was asked, â€Å"Is there anything you would like to see done differently and what are some of your biggest challenges?† Ms. Mann said that these two questions kind of run hand in hand. Probation officers are typically over worked and under paid. Also, they are constantly under-staffed. High caseloads make it challenging for officers to monitor each of their cases as intensely as they should. Another huge challenge is funding. Funding for raises, funding for more officers and funding for programming. The families bring even bigger challenges. The â€Å"working poor† families where parents work and yet make too much money for public assistance yet cant afford treatment and insurance companies don’t do much for outpatient treatment. Also the clients seem to be getting younger and younger each day. We are frequently seeing 9 and 10 year olds- mainly for out of control behavior at school. There has to be and alternate plan for these kids- rather than calling the police. On the flip side of that, now some of her rewarding aspects of her job come from her staff being happy. When she was a field officer she felt good when she seemed to â€Å"get through† to a juvenile. Somewhere along the lines her â€Å"words of wisdom† had a positive effect on someone. My final question was â€Å" If you had to do it all over again would you choose the same career?† Her answer was â€Å"Well, hind site is 20/20. In all honesty, no I probably wouldn’t. I went into probation when I was 24. I had worked at the detention center (Wood) for about 1 year before getting a probation spot. I went into this not really putting much thought into whether I would have a family and/or the long-run salary potential. Nearly 15 years later I have 3 children. As I mentioned, hind site is 20/20, and personally my family and I would have been better suited for the education field. Now, in another 15 years when they are grown it might not be such an issue. We do have many officers in our department that have been here 15 years plus and some for more than 25 years. It is not a means to make lots of money, and only a select few ever make it into a management position. It is, however, a solid job with decent pay and benefits. Unfortunately and fortunately (de pending on how you look at it), there will always be crime and a need for probation. Mann, J. . [Interview with Tammy Morgan]. . Conclusion After doing all my research and talking to someone in the profession I found out a lot of useful information. I am still very interested in becoming a juvenile probation but there are so many different professions out there that I can do with my degree and I want to weigh out all my options. The starting out pay isn’t to bad to start but according to my interviewee you can’t do this for the money. In a profession like this you have to be in it for the love of the job and the love for the difference you can make in a persons life. I can kind of relate to this with the profession I am in right now. I am still very interested in helping young people and the age is getting younger and younger all the time. We need to figure out a different way to deal with these kids or soon or we are going to be defeating the purpose of the whole probation profession and what it is meant for. This occupation is still at the top of my list but I want to keep all my doors open until I get al l the information on all the jobs available. Reference Page Mann, J. . [Interview with Tammy Morgan]. . Hurst, H., IV. And Torbet, P. (1995). Special Analysis of the Juvenile Probation Officer Initiative Database Clegg, R. K. (1995). Probation and Parole; principles and practices. Carney, L. P. (1994). Probation and Parole; legal and social dimensions. Rodriguez, N. (2007). Restorative Justice at Work: Examining the Impact of Restorative Justice Resolutions on Juvenile Recidivism. Crime Delinquency, Vol. 53, 7-9. Research Papers on Probation OfficersBooker T. Washington, W.E.B. Du Bois, Ida B. Wells-BarnettDeontological Teleological TheoriesDistance Learning Survival GuideWhat are Stock OptionsThe Story of Beatrix PotterIs the Use of Psychotropic Drugs in the Treatment ofMRSA Staph BacteriaGenetic EngineeringThe Equal Rights AmendmentThe Mechanics of Grading Grading Systems

The Meaning Of Christmas

The Meaning Of Christmas The Meaning Of Christmas The Meaning Of Christmas By Sharon The word Christmas has been around for centuries. Some dictionaries say it belongs to the late Old English period; others that it dates back to the 12th century. Old forms include cristes masse and christmasse, meaning the festival (mass) of Christ. Christmas actually replaced a number of significant pagan midwinter festivals when the church was trying to persuade Romans to convert to Christianity. In the phrase Merry Christmas, the word merry does not refer an excess of seasonal good cheer, nor yet to drunkenness. Those meanings date from the 14th century onwards. However, the original meaning of merry was pleasing or agreeable. That meaning is also found in the phrase God rest you merry, gentlemen (NOT God rest you, merry gentlemen), where rest is used in the same sense as in rest assured. The use of the abbreviation Xmas drives some people crazy, yet it is not a modern aberration, but an ancient usage. X was used to represent the Greek symbol chi, which is also the first letter in Christ. That usage has been around since Roman times. Bringer of gifts Santa Claus has evolved from a Christian saint, Saint Nicholas, and is believed to have arrived in the US with the Dutch. Though now the two are inextricably intertwined, Father Christmas predates Santa Claus, having been around since the 15th century. Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Vocabulary category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:50 Redundant Phrases to AvoidLatin Words and Expressions: All You Need to Know40 Irregular Verbs That Can End in â€Å"-t†

Tsunami Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words - 1

Tsunami - Essay Example In general, tsunamis normally consist of a sequence of waves which occur in stages ranging from minutes to hours and these arrive in what is usually referred to as a wave train (â€Å"Tsunami Fact-ite†). The height of tsunami waves, which are tens of meters high, can be generated by large events in the ocean, and although their brunt tends to be limited to shoreline areas, they have a massive power of devastation and they can also affect whole ocean basins. There are two ways through which tsunamis cause damage and one of these is the force of smashing water, which travels at high speeds. The other is the destructive power of large volumes of water which drain off the land, and takes everything with it, even if the wave that brought this water to land did not seem to be huge. While everyday wind waves have a wavelength of about a hundred meters and a height of roughly two meters, a tsunami in the deep ocean has a wavelength of about two hundred kilometers and such a wave may travel at well over eight hundred kilometers per hour (Nelson, 2). Owing to this huge wavelength the wave fluctuation at any given position takes  20 to 30  minutes to finish a cycle and has amplitude of only about one meter, which makes tsunamis exceedingly difficult to notice over deep water, and, in fact, many ships rarely notice their passage. A large tsunami may bring with it numerous waves, which arrive in interludes of hours, often having a certain term between the wave lengths (â€Å"Water Waves and Tsunamis†). It is a proven fact that the first wave to reach the coastline may not necessarily have a high run up and instead, those which come after it may have higher ones. About eighty percent of all tsunamis take place in the Pacific Ocean, but there is also a high possibility of them occurring whenever there is a unusually large water body, and this includes some lakes. Tsunamis have come to be some of the most feared natural

Leadership style for Intel Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Leadership style for Intel - Essay Example In the first example, the company entered completely new market and gained superiority in this field; while in the second example, Grove has showed the world his ethical beliefs - the satisfaction of customers and high quality of products were of highest importance to him. Operational environment was like a chess playing board for Grove - he always anticipated what the competitors will do in response to his moves and then responded to their actions. Moreover, Grove was willing to share his knowledge and experience with other leaders through his writings. Not a single other leader has written so much about how to stabilize the change (Garten 26). In his books he explains how to increase the productivity of employees no matter what business they are working in. Grove addressed the issues immediately when they appeared. For example, in the mid 1990s the issue of competition was especially important for the big corporations. Grove has published a book explaining how the companies should deal with the small competitors who emerge suddenly and can change the shape of the industry. It was his nature to help other people to survive on the market. He has led his company to success and wanted other to succeed as well. Grove possessed exceptional... Intel was at the same time big and nimble as if elephants were able to dance (Garten 26). Grove was able to realize that size and speedy adaptability were critical to the global reach and has successful incorporated his cultural values into success of the company he headed. As Grove his noted, his greatest accomplishment was that he "played a significant part in developing the work environment and culture at the company and with the directors" (Garten 26). Grove has devoted his career to finding the way to motivate people. As his employees recall, is he wanted something, nobody had the right to say no. (Schlender 68). He possessed the ability to instill in employee's desire to do things right and the best of their ability, and employees did not want to disappoint him. As it was already mentioned, for Grove the responsibilities of CEO and the board of directors had to be separated with everybody having their own set of responsibilities. For example, he shifted the primary mission of board from pure oversight to helping the company reignite growth. When he became the CEO Grove has changed himself and transformed into another type of a leader, with governance issues being shifted to the board of directors. "In business he has shown time and again an uncanny ability to clarify and optimize complex organizations, business processes, and strategies by applying exacting standards and setting high, unambiguous expectations. Yet the real secret of his success is his ability to reinvent himself" (Schlender 68). This is what people think about Grove. As he recalls, the most difficult task for him was to learn to be silent. He realized that his opinion is not always the best and the only

Surveys and Sampling Essay Example for Free

Surveys and Sampling Essay A. Identify the population and variables. Population is the whole group of Richmond buyers interested to buy a house. Variables are: location, price, bedrooms, bathrooms, sq.ft, and realtor B. Identify variables as categorical or quantitative. * Location is categorical variable * Price is quantitative variable * Bedrooms are quantitative variable * Baths are quantitative variable * Sq.Ft is quantitative variable * Realtor is categorical variable C. What are some possible population parameters of interest? The parameter in this case is the 182 listing in Richmond, some other options to be considered are: average house price ($310,381), house size, how many bedrooms and bathrooms, location of the house, who is it listed by and the city zone. D. What are some possible sample statistics that could be calculated from this data? It is not necessary to calculate the statistics, just identify them. Average price for houses based on the county location, average household income, preferable characteristic and taste of the house buyers E. What is the sampling frame for the sample? The sampling frame is randomly selected from the single-dwelling properties for sale in the Greater Richmond area shown on the website realestate.aol.com. F. What is the sampling design? Systematic Random sampling (SRS) G. Are there any sources of bias in the sample? Yes – based on the data we have the direction of the bias source is over charged. H. If we had decided to use a Stratified Sampling design, what would be appropriate strata? We can collect the sample by the process of dividing houses of the population in Richmond area into homogeneous subgroups before sampling then select a random selection within each stratum then combine the result. I. Are there other factors not shown in the data set that may affect the price of a house? Land size, school zone, amenities, house features (garage, basement, pool, etc..)

Somali Piracy Culture Essay example -- Somalia Pirates

Somalia is one of the poorest nations in the world whose economy depends largely on their fishing industry. However, powerful nations have ruined the country’s fishing industry by using huge offshore fishing vessels and by illegally dumping waste material into the Somali coastline. The UN Security Council, the European Union, and NATO largely supported these acts through resolutions. Being confronted by these powerful institutions, a powerless nation, such as Somalia, does not have an array of resources to battle this exploitation. To make their voice be heard, a Somali Pirate culture developed in the past twenty years. It consists of hijacking vessels and demanding a ransom. While their actions did not attract much attention in the beginning, publicity and awareness of this issue has steadily increased. The purpose of this paper is to show that the Somali pirate culture has reached a point, where they successfully influence the global economy, which has consequences in countr ies around the world. By controlling international trade routes, Somali pirates uphold this power. These efforts by the Somali pirates exhibit their disparity and signify that they will not allow the piracy of their own resources without retaliation. To draw attention to their dire situation, the Somali pirate culture developed over two decades ago, raiding fishing and commercial boats and ships in order to demand ransom from other countries. Though their methods may not be of the most legit methods, their efforts have been effective. Somalia’s coastline extends to just under two thousand miles, allowing control to most of where the Gulf of Aden empties out into the Indian Ocean, and creates a choke point. â€Å"Equipped with small skiffs, firearms, grapnels and ... ... very reason this culture has been initiated, they continue to fight the war against the Somali pirates. Works Cited Agence France Presse. (2009, April 15). Inquirer.net. Retrieved January 12, 2011, from Inquirer.net: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view/20090415-199432/Facts-and-figures-Somalia-piracy Reuters. (2009, April 15). Reuters. Retrieved January 12, 2011, from Reuters.com: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE53E2JR20090415?pageNumber=2 Thakurta, S. (2008, October 10). Somalia piracy: The world can't afford to ignore . Retrieved January 12, 2011, from Merinews: http://www.merinews.com/article/somalia-piracy-the-world-cant-afford-to-ignore/144093.shtml Wright, R. (2011, January 16). Financial Times. Retrieved January 17, 2011, from FT.com: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/658138a6-219b-11e0-9e3b-00144feab49a.html#axzz1BKVMULD0

The Underwriting Challenges Facing P.S.V. Insurers in Kenya

Rational Choice Theory: An Overview by Steven L. Green Professor of Economics and Statistics Chair, Department of Economics Baylor University Prepared for the Baylor University Faculty Development Seminar on Rational Choice Theory May 2002  © 2002, Steven L. Green It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried. -Winston ChurchillIt seems easy to accept that rationality involves many features that cannot be summarized in terms of some straightforward formula, such as binary consistency. But this recognition does not immediately lead to alternative characterizations that might be regarded as satisfactory, even though the inadequacies of the traditional assumptions of rational behaviour standardly used in economic theory have become hard to deny. It will not be an easy task to find replacements for the standard assumptions of rational behaviour †¦ hat can be found in the traditional economic literature, both because the identified deficiencies have been seen as calling for rather divergent remedies, and also because there is little hope of finding an alternative assumption structure that will be as simple and usable as the traditional assumptions of self-interest maximization, or of consistency of choice. – Amartya Sen (1990, p. 206) 1. Introduction Rational Choice Theory is an approach used by social scientists to understand human behavior.The approach has long been the dominant paradigm in economics, but in recent decades it has become more widely used in other disciplines such as Sociology, Political Science, and Anthropology. This spread of the rational choice approach beyond conventional economic issues is discussed by Becker (1976), Radnitzky and Bernholz (1987), Hogarth and Reder (1987), Swedberg (1990), and Green and Shapiro (1996). The main purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of rational choice theory for the non-specialist.I first outline the basic assumptions of the ra tional choice approach, then I provide several examples of its use. I have chosen my examples to illustrate how widely the rational choice method has been applied. In the paper I also discuss some ideas as to why the rational choice approach has become more prevalent in many disciplines in recent years. One idea is that the rational choice approach tends to provide opportunities for the novel confirmation of theories. I argue that these opportunities are the result primarily of the mathematical nature of the approach.I then consider several issues raised by rational choice theory. First, I compare the limited meaning of â€Å"rationality† in rational choice theory with the more general definitions of the term use by philosophers. Second, I describe some of the main criticisms that have been levied against the rational choice approach. Third, I consider the limitations of rational choice models as guides to public policy. Fourth, I review some Christian perspectives on the rat ional choice appraoch.I end the paper by outlining three sets of questions I would like us to discuss in the faculty development seminar. Before I proceed, an apology and a caveat are in order. I apologize for the length of this paper. The British publisher Lord Beaverbrook once apologized to a friend for sending a five- page letter, saying he did not have time to write a one-page letter. I have the same sentiment here. The caveat is that my discussion of the rational choice theory in this paper is necessarily simplistic, so the reader should not take it as definitive.If some element of the theory seems suspect in some way, there will nearly always be an advanced version of the theory published somewhere that is more subtle and nuanced. Most statements in this paper are subject to qualification along many lines, so the reader should view what I present here keeping in mind the goal of the paper, which is only to give the reader some sense of the overall flavor of the rational choice approach. 2. Basic Assumptions about Choice DeterminationRational Choice Theory generally begins with consideration of the choice behavior of one or more individual decision-making units – which in basic economics are most often consumers and/or firms. The rational choice theorist often presumes that the individual decision-making unit in question is â€Å"typical† or â€Å"representative† of some larger group such as buyers or sellers in a particular market. Once individual behavior is established, the analysis generally moves on to examine how individual choices interact to produce outcomes.A rational choice analysis of the market for fresh tomatoes, for example, would generally involve a description of (i) the desired purchases of tomatoes by buyers, (ii) the desired production and sales of tomatoes by sellers, and (iii) how these desired purchases and desired sales interact to determine the price and quantity sold of tomatoes in the market. The typical toma to buyer is faced with the problem of how much of his income (or more narrowly, his food budget) to spend on tomatoes as opposed to some other good or service.The typical tomato seller is faced with the problem of how many tomatoes to produce and what price to charge for them. Exactly how does the buyer choose how much of his income to spend on tomatoes? Exactly how does the seller choose how many tomatoes to produce and what price to charge? One could imagine a number of answers to these questions. They might choose based on custom or habit, with current decisions simply a continuation of what has been done (for whatever reason) in the past. The decisions might be made randomly.In contrast, the rational choice approach to this problem is based on the fundamental premise that the choices made by buyers and sellers are the choices that best help them achieve their objectives, given all relevant factors that are beyond their control. The basic idea behind rational choice theory is tha t people do their best under prevailing circumstances. What is meant, exactly, by â€Å"best achieve their objectives† and â€Å"do their best? † The discussion in this section will emphasize the choices of consumers. 1] The rational choice theory of consumer behavior is based on the following axioms regarding consumer preferences:[2] 1) The consumer faces a known set of alternative choices. 2) For any pair of alternatives (A and B, say), the consumer either prefers A to B, prefers B to A, or is indifferent between A and B. This is the axiom of completeness. 3) These preferences are transitive. That is, if a consumer prefers A to B and B to C, then she necessarily prefers A to C. If she is indifferent between A and B, and indifferent between B and C, then she is necessarily indifferent between A and C. ) The consumer will choose the most preferred alternative. [3] If the consumer is indifferent between two or more alternatives that are preferred to all others, he or sh e will choose one of those alternatives — with the specific choice from among them remaining indeterminate. When economists speak of â€Å"rational† behavior, they usually mean only behavior that is in accord with the above axioms. I consider the definition of â€Å"rationality† in more detail near the end of the paper below. Rational choice theories usually represent preferences with a utility function.This is a mathematical function that assigns a numerical value to each possible alternative facing the decision maker. As a simple example, suppose a consumer purchases two goods. Let x denote the number of units of good 1 consumed and y denote the number of units of good 2 consumed. The consumer’s utility function is given by U = U(x,y), where the function U( ·, ·) assigns a number (â€Å"utility†) to any given set of values for x and y. [4] The properties of a large number of specific function forms for U( ·, ·) have been considered. 5] Th e analysis is by no means restricted to two goods, though in many cases the analyst finds it convenient to assume that x is the good of interest is and y is a â€Å"composite good† representing consumption of everything but good x. The function U( ·, ·) is normally assumed to have certain properties. First, it is generally assumed that more is preferred to less – so that U rises with increases in x and with increases in y. Another way of saying this is to say that marginal utility is positive – where the term â€Å"marginal utility† is the change in utility associated with a small increase in the quantity of a good consumed.The second property of U( ·, ·) is that of diminishing marginal utility, which means that the (positive) marginal utility of each good gets smaller and smaller the more of the good that is being consumed in the first place. One’s first Dr. Pepper after a workout yields quite a lot of satisfaction. By the fifth or sixth, the additional satisfaction, while still positive, is much smaller. An important result in consumer theory is that a preference relationship can be represented by a utility function only if the relationship satisfies completeness and transitivity.The converse (that any complete and transitive preference relation may be represented by a utility function) is also true provided that the number of alternative choices is finite. [Mas-Collel, Whinston, and Green (1995, p. 9)] If the number of possible alternative choices is infinite, it may not be possible to represent the preference relation with a utility function. Rational choice analysis generally begins with the premise that some agent, or group of agents, is [are] maximizing utility – that is, choosing the preferred alternative. This is only part of the story, however.Another important element of the choice process is the presence of constraints. The presence of constraints makes choice necessary, and one virtue of rational c hoice theory is that it makes the trade-offs between alternative choices very explicit. A typical constraint in a simple one-period consumer choice problem is the budget constraint, which says that the consumer cannot spend more than her income. Multi-period models allow for borrowing, but in that case the constraint is that the consumer must be able to repay the loan in the future.The use of utility functions means the idea of agents making the preferred choices from among available alternatives is translated into a mathematical exercise in constrained optimization. That is, an agent is assumed to make the feasible choice (feasible in a sense that it is not prohibited by constraints) that results in the highest possible value of his or her utility function. Constrained optimization methods (based on either calculus or set theory) are well developed in mathematics. The solution to the constrained optimization problem generally leads to a decision rule.The decision rule shows how uti lity-maximizing choices vary with changes in circumstances such as changes in income or in the prices of goods. A third element of rational choice analysis involves assumptions about the environment in which choices are made. Simple economic models are often restricted to choices made in markets, with emphasis on how much of each good or service consumers want to purchase (or firms want to produce and sell) under any given set of circumstances. A fourth element of rational choice analysis is a discussion of how the choices of different agents are made consistent with one another.A situation with consistent choices in which each agent is optimizing subject to constraints is called equilibrium. In the fresh tomato market, for example, the choices of buyers and sellers are consistent if the quantity of tomatoes consumers want to purchase at the prevailing price is equal to the quantity that firms want to produce and sell at that price. In this as in other simple market models, price pl ays a key role in the establishment of equilibrium. If consumers want to purchase more than firms are producing, the price will be bid upward, which will induce more production by firms and reduce desired purchases by consumers.If consumers want to purchase less than firms are producing, the resulting glut will force prices down, which will reduce production by firms and increase purchases by consumers. Fifth and last, in the absence of strong reasons to do otherwise such as the imposition of price controls by the government, the analyst employing rational choice theory will generally assume that equilibrium outcomes in the model are adequate representations of what actually happens in the real world.This means, in the above example, that a rational choice theorist would explain changes in the actual price of tomatoes observed in the real world by looking for possible causes of changes in the equilibrium price of tomatoes in her model. Extensions The basic rational choice theory des cribed above has been extended in a number of ways. I will consider four important ones in this section, though there are of course many others. First, the basic theory accounts only for choice at a given time – that is, the model is static.In contrast, a dynamic (or intertemporal) model allows the agent to plan for the future as well as make choices in the present. In a dynamic model, the agent is still assumed to maximize utility, but the concept of utility is generalized to include not only present satisfaction but also future satisfaction. The agent does not just make choices today – he makes a plan for current and future choices. In this case, it may well be â€Å"rational† to sacrifice (e. g. , consume less or work more) today in order to obtain some better outcome tomorrow. The dynamic formulation is an essential element of theories of saving and investment.One issue that arises in dynamic models is that of discounting. In most dynamic models, the agents under consideration are assumed to prefer (other things equal) a given level of consumption in the present to a given level of consumption in the future. Consider a model with two periods, 1 and 2. Let U1 denote the agent’s utility in period 1 and U2 denote utility in period 2. (U1 and U2 can depend on a number of factors, some of which can be controlled by the agent. ) The agent would then be assumed to formulate a plan for periods 1 and 2 to maximize the sum V = U1 + ?  ·U2, where 0 < ? < 1 is the â€Å"discount factor. [6] A specification of ? < 1 means that a given utility is worth less to the agent in the future than in the present, and is denoted a â€Å"positive rate of time preference† or simply â€Å"time preference. † A justification for time preference is given by Olson and Bailey (1981). Elster (1984, pp. 66ff) summarizes the opposing view that â€Å"†¦ for an individual the very fact of having time preferences, over and above what is justif ied by the fact that we are mortal, is irrational and perhaps immoral as well. † In any case, dynamic models with positive time preference are pervasive in the rational choice literature.The basic rational choice model assumes all outcomes are known with certainty. A second extension of the basic model involves explicit treatment of uncertainty. This is important in rational choice models of crime, for example, where a rational agent is assumed to consider the chance he or she will be apprehended while committing a criminal act. The rational choice model is extended to allow for uncertainty by assuming the agent maximizes expected utility. Uncertainty is characterized by a probability distribution that assigns a likelihood (probability) to each possible outcome.Suppose there are two possible outcomes (for example, the prospective criminal is apprehended while committing a crime, or not apprehended while committing the crime), which we can denote outcome A and outcome B. Let pA denote the probability that outcome A will occur pB denote the probability of outcome B. With these as the only possible outcomes, it is clear that pA + pB = 1 — that is, there is a 100% chance that either A or B will occur. Let U(A) be the agent’s utility with outcome A and U(B) be the agent’s utility with outcome B.The agent is then assumed to maximize expected utility, which is the sum of utility in each outcome weighted by the probability that outcome will occur: V = pA ·U(A) + pB ·U(B). In general, the choices of the agent can affect pA and pB as well as U(A) and U(B). A related (and third) area in which the rational choice model is extended involves incomplete information. In the basic model described above, the agent knows perfectly all the qualities of the goods under her consideration. More generally, an agent may have to make choices when she does not have full information.A university generally does not have full information about the future rese arch productivity of a new assistant professor, for example, and a used car buyer cannot be certain that he is not driving a â€Å"lemon† off the lot. The fourth area in which the basic rational choice model is extended involves strategic behavior. This generally occurs in situations in which there are only a few agents. The key issue is that each agent must take into account the likely effect of his actions on the decisions of other agents, all of whom are looking at the situation the same way.A classic ongoing example of this kind of interaction involves the crude-oil production decisions of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Acting collectively, OPEC members have an incentive to restrict production to keep the world price of crude-oil high. Thus each OPEC country is given a production quota – a limit on the amount it can produce. Each country acting individually, however, has an incentive to â€Å"cheat† on its quota and thereby be able to sell more crude-oil at the high price. This will only be successful if the other countries maintain their quotas, however, thereby keeping the price high.Thus when a country is contemplating the breach of a quota, it must consider how other member countries may react. The branch of economics that deals with strategic interactions is called game theory. [7] 3. A Brief Description of the Rational Choice Method Like most scholarship, rational choice analysis usually begins with a question. What determines church attendance? Are suicide rates affected by the state of the economy? Do seat belt laws make highways safer? Under what circumstances are â€Å"cold turkey† methods necessary to end addictions?Why are drivers of certain minority groups more likely to be pulled over by police? Which soldiers are most likely to suffer casualties in a war? Why can’t Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon just get along? Why did large mammals become extinct in the Pelistocene era? When are workers most likely to â€Å"shirk† their job responsibilities? Does a reported decline in â€Å"consumer confidence† portend a slowdown in the economy? Varian (1997, p. 4) describes the model-building process as follows: †¦ all economic models are pretty much the same. There are some economic agents. They make choices in order to advance their objectives.The choices have to satisfy various constraints so there’s something that adjusts to make all these choices consistent. This basic structure suggests a plan of attack: Who are the people making choices? What are the constraints they face? How do they interact? What adjusts if the choices aren’t mutually consistent? I will provide a slightly more detailed description here. Rational choice analysis may be characterized as working through the following steps: 1) Identify the relevant agents and make assumptions about their objectives. 2) Identify the constraints faced by each agent. ) Determine the â⠂¬Å"decision rules† of each agent, which characterize how an agent’s choices respond to changes of one kind or another – for example, how the quantity of tomatoes purchased might change with price or income. This task is usually accomplished mathematically by the solution of a constrained optimization problem. 4) Determine how the decision rules of various agents may be made consistent with one another and thereby characterize the equilibrium of the model. [8] Effective analysis of complex interactions between agents normally involves the use of mathematical methods, which can sometimes be quite sophisticated. ) Explore how the equilibrium of the model changes in response to various external events. That is, determine the predictions or implications of the model. Again, this step can involve substantial use of mathematics. 6) Examine whether the predictions determined in step (5) are consistent with actual experience. This step often involves the statistical anal ysis of data and can involve sophisticated techniques (to control sample selection bias, for example). 7) Draw conclusions and any implications (for government policy, for example) implied by (6).It is often the case that the question at hand may be addressed by reference to standard theoretical results (e. g. , people generally want to consume less of a product when its price increases). In these circumstances the analyst often will not specify and solve a rational choice model explicitly. Instead, she will assume the reader understands that the model could be specified and solved if necessary and would have conventional implications. A. Preference Specification In rational choice theory behavior follows from the pursuit of objectives, so preference specification is crucial.Frank (1997, p. 18) describes two general approaches. The self-interest standard of rationality â€Å"says rational people consider only costs and benefits that accrue directly to themselves. † The presen t-aim standard of rationality â€Å"says rational people act efficiently in pursuit of whatever objectives they hold at the moment of choice. † Frank contends that neither approach is obviously satisfactory. Many people would seem to care about more than their own material well-being, so the selfish egoism implied by self-interest standard is probably too narrow.In contrast, the present-aim standard puts no restrictions at all on preference formation, which means that anything can be explained by an appeal to preferences. Again quoting Frank (1997, p. 18): Suppose, for example, that we see someone drink a gallon of used crankcase oil and keel over dead. The present-aim approach can â€Å"explain† this behavior by saying that the person must have really liked crankcase oil. The main strength of the self-interest standard is that the associated preference specifications are generally straightforward.This approach, which dominates basic economic theory, usually assumes th at utility depends only on the consumption of material goods and services and that, for any given good or service, more is strictly preferred to less. Bergstrom (forthcoming) presents an analysis based on evolutionary considerations showing circumstances under which selfish behavior will become dominant. The present-aim standard has also been used in rational choice models, but its use is nowhere near as prevalent as use of the self-interest standard. The reasons are threefold.First, the self-interest standard has often been successful in the sense of yielding predictions that are consistent with experience. Second, there is no compelling way to specify preferences when the only criterion is â€Å"more than self-interest matters. † (People may care about others, but are teh jealous or altruistic? ) Third, self-interest standard models are more tractable analytically and are more prone than present-aim models to imply specific observable predictions. In particular, models in w hich agents care about each other in some way are prone to have multiple equilibria (sometimes an infinity of equilibria).Frank (1987) makes an evolutionary argument that preferences should include concerns for others. Bergstrom (1999) explores some possible solutions to the â€Å"multiple equilibrium† problem. B. Theory Revision It many instances step (6) will find that one or more of the predictions of a model are not borne out by the data. In these cases, the typical rational choice theorist will not even consider abandoning the assumption of utility maximization. Instead, she will conclude that she must have missed something about constraints or preferences and attempt to revise her theory accordingly.This issue of theory revision is very tricky, and space limitations (not to mention by limited understanding) permit only a brief discussion here. Suppose a theory T has prediction P, when in fact available data indicate the opposite (not P, or ~P). The theory might then be revised in some way to become theory T’, where T’ predicts ~P rather than P. My impression is that most economists would much rather change assumptions about constraints rather than change assumptions about preferences. 9] This viewpoint reflects a desire to avoid meaningless tautologies such as â€Å"he consumed more tomatoes because his preferences changed in such a way that he wanted to consume more tomatoes. † One can explain any choice in this way. Hausman (1984) summarizes the thinking of Lakatos (1970) as follows: A modification of a theory is an improvement if it is not ad hoc. Modifications may be ad hoc in three ways. First of all, a modification of a theory may have no new testable implications at all. Lakatos regards such modifications as completely empty and unscientific.Modifications that are not ad hoc in this sense are â€Å"theoretically progressive. † It may be, however, that the testable implications of the theoretically progressive mod ifications are not confirmed by experiments or observations. In that case modifications are theoretically progressive but not empirically progressive. They are ad hoc in the second sense. An extended process of theory modification is progressive overall if the modifications are uniformly theoretically progressive and intermittently empirically progressive.As one is modifying one’s theory in the hope of improving it, modifications must always have new testable implications, and those testable implications must sometimes be borne out by experience. But one crucial feature of science has been left out. Throughout this history of repeated modifications, there must be some element of continuity. No theoretical progress in economics is made if I modify monetary by theory by adding to it the claim that copper conducts electricity. The expanded theory has testable (and confirmed) implications, but something arbitrary has simply been tacked on.Such a modification is ad hoc in the thir d sense. One needs to recognize the role of something like a Kuhnian â€Å"paradigm. † Modifications of theories must be made in the â€Å"right† way. (p. 23) I believe that most rational choice theorists would adhere to these criteria for effective theory modification. As Stigler and Becker (1977) note: What we assert is not that we are clever enough to make illuminating applications of utility-maximizing theory to all important phenomena – not even our entire generation of economists is clever enough to do that.Rather, we assert that this traditional approach of the economist offers guidance in tackling these problems – and that no other approach of remotely comparable generality and power is available. (pp. 76-7) †¦. We also claim †¦ that no significant behavior has been illuminated by assumptions of differences in tastes. Instead, they, along with assumptions of unstable tastes, have been a convenient crutch to lean on when the analysis has bogged down. They give the appearance of considered judgement (sic), yet really have only been ad hoc arguments that disguise analytical failures. p. 89) In any case, one can change assumptions about preferences only if the new assumptions not only fix the failure of the previous model (that is, they imply ~P rather than P) but also have new predictions that are not rejected by the data. C. Why is the Rational Choice Approach so Popular? [10] Defenders of the rational choice approach – e. g. , Becker (1976) — argue that the approach is useful because it tends to generate non-tautological predictions. Suppose a scholar wants to account for some observed phenomenon P.For example, P might be the fact that wage rates paid to workers (after adjustment for inflation) tend to rise during good economic times [expansions] and fall during bad economic times [recessions]. It is generally quite easy to develop a theory T that predicts P, especially for someone who has studied P ca refully. In fact, many such theories can be constructed. Importantly, however, it is generally not good scientific practice to use the same data to both formulate and test a hypothesis or theory. If so, all theories would be confirmed.Instead, good methodology will develop a theory T that not only predicts P, but that also has other predictions Q1, Q2, Q3, †¦ Ideally, many of these predictions will be observable – that is, one should be able to determine if Q1, Q2, Q3 †¦. do or do not in fact occur. If these predictions are not observed – say not Q1 (~Q1) is observed rather than Q1 – the theory may be judged inadequate and either revised or discarded. If I may be allowed a lapse into imprecise language, a theory can never be right if there is not at least some possibility in the first place for it to be wrong. 11] This is not to say that rational choice theorists are pristine with respect to this requirement. The history of economic thought is no doubt full of bad theories (â€Å"bad† in the sense that one or more key predictions are not consistent with the data) that have been saved by ad hoc modifications. It is to say that proponents of the rational choice approach contend that ad hoc theorizing and the resulting empty tautologies may be less prevalent with their approach than with other approaches.I certainly agree that the rational choice method does in fact tend to generate many testable predictions, and in Sections 4 and 5 below I discuss several illustrative examples. Despite the fact that advocates of rational choice theory justify their approach in this way, I know of no study that explicitly compares methodologies along these lines. Is it really the case that rational choice models have more non-tautological implications than the models implied by other approaches? I am not sure anyone has examined this issue carefully.I believe the rational choice methodology is gaining in popularity not just because it tends t o generate lots of observable predictions, but also because it tends to generate novel predictions. This is an extension of the idea of novel confirmation. Novel confirmation embodies the sentiment expressed by Descartes (1644) that we know hypotheses are correct â€Å"only when we see that we can explain in terms of them, not merely the effects we originally had in mind, but also all other phenomena which we did not previously think. † [Quoted by Musgrave (1974), p. 1)] Campbell and Vinci (1983, p. 15) begin their discussion of novel confirmation as follows: Philosophers of science generally agree that when observational equivalence supports a theory, the confirmation is much stronger when the evidence is ‘novel’. The verification of an unusual prediction, for example, tends to provide much stronger confirmation than the explanation of something already known of something the theory was designed to account for. This view is so familiar that Michael Gardner has r ecently described it as ‘a lengthy tradition – not to say a consensus – in the philosophy of science. ’As seems to often be the case in the philosophy of science, the usefulness of novel confirmation is not as well established as the above quote implies. Campbell and Vinci (1983) also note that â€Å"†¦ the notion of novel confirmation is beset with a theoretical puzzle about how the degree of confirmation can change without any change in the evidence, hypothesis, or auxiliary assumptions. † (p. 315) Kahn, Landsburg, and Stockman (1992) maintain that the question of novel confirmation can be addressed meaningfully only in the presence â€Å"of an explicit model by which hypotheses are generated. † (p. 04) They find that the idea of novel confirmation is valid if there are unobservable differences in the abilities of scientists or if there is some chance of error in observation. [12] Campbell and Vinci (1993) distinguish between epistemic novelty and heuristic novelty. Epistemic novelty occurs when a theory has an implication that would be considered highly improbable in the absence of the theory. There is of course a question over the proper definition of â€Å"highly improbable. † Heuristic novelty occurs when the evidence predicted by a theory plays no heuristic role in the formation of the theory.Descartes would seem to be referring to heuristic novelty in the above quote. Rational choice theory is a useful methodology in part (perhaps in large part) because it tends to lead the researcher to novel implications, thereby making novel confirmation more likely than may be the case with other methodologies. Space and time considerations do not allow me to attempt a full-blown analysis of this conjecture, which in any case I am not really qualified to undertake because of my limited exposure to alternative social science methodologies not based on rational choice and my limited knowledge of the philosophy of s cience.In Sections 4 and 5 below I describe several examples of rational choice theory and some associated novel implications. I should note that the mathematical nature of rational choice theory would appear (to me) to be crucial here. Mathematics allows the theorist to make some sense out of complicated interactions between decision-making units that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to untangle. It is precisely those kinds of situations in which rational choice theories are most likely to have novel implications, because the implications are not immediately apparent even to scholars with knowledge, experience, and intuition.We now proceed to Section 4, which provides a detailed discussion of a rational choice model of church attendance. Section 5 gives shorter summaries of several other rational choice models, including models of suicide, auto safety regulation, addiction, racial profiling, Congressional influence on military assignments, political revolutions, megafauna extinction, and the predictability of consumption spending. 4. A Detailed Example: Church AttendanceAzzi and Ehrenberg (1975) develop a rational choice model of church attendance. This is a classic paper, which Iannaccone (1998, p. 1480) calls â€Å"†¦ the first formal model for religious participation (within any discipline) and †¦ the foundation for nearly all subsequent economic models of religious behavior. † [Italics in original. ] Their analysis begins with the assumption that the utility of a household consisting of two members, a husband and a wife, is given by: (1)U = U(C1, s1, C2, s2, †¦ , Ct, st, †¦ Cn, sn, q), where Ci is the household’s consumption of market goods and services in period i (i = 1, †¦ n), and si denotes religious participation in period i. The model assumes â€Å"for simplicity† that both members of the household know how long they will live and that both will die at date n. This is a dynamic model, because t he household cares about future as well as current consumption. The remaining variable in the household utility function, q, is the â€Å"expected value of the household’s afterlife consumption. Azzi and Ehrenberg assume that church attendance follows from a â€Å"salvation motive† (the desire to increase afterlife consumption) and a â€Å"social pressure motive† (where church membership and participation increases the chances that an individual will be successful in business), rather than necessarily a pure â€Å"consumption motive† (people simply enjoy the time they spend at church). Consumption in period i (any year during which the husband and wife are alive) is given by: (2)Ci = C(xt, h1t, h2t), here xt is denotes the consumption of goods and services purchases in markets, while h1t and h2t are the amounts of time devoted by the husband and wife, respectively, to market-based consumption. The idea here is that satisfaction involves not only the purc hase of a good (such as a television) but also time spent using the good. The social value of church attendance in period i, denoted by si, is determined as follows: (3)si = s(r1i, r2i) where r1i and r2i denote the time spent on church-related activities by the husband and wife, respectively, in year i.People get more current satisfaction from going to church the more time they devote to church-related activities. After-life consumption q is determined as follows: (3)q = q(r11, r12, r21, r22, †¦ , r1n, r2n), That is, the more time spent on church-related activities during all periods of life means the more the household members will enjoy their afterlife. Azzi and Ehrenberg (p. 33, fn. 7) note that â€Å"Our household’s view of the afterlife is not one of an all-or-nothing proposition (heaven or hell), it is rather that there is a continuum of possible outcomes. †The choices of the household are constrained by time and money. The two household members can allocate time in labor [which generates income that can be used to purchase the goods and services denoted by xt in equation (1) above], consumption-related activities [reflected in h1t and h2t in equation (2) above], and church-related activities [reflected in the r1i and r2i in equation (3) above]. The constraint here is that each day has 24 hours. Hence the couple can spend more time on church-related activities only if they spend less time earning income and/or consuming.The second constraint in the model says basically that, over the course of their lives, the couple cannot spend more than their combined income. â€Å"Over the course of their lives† means that it is possible for them to borrow early in life as long as they repay the loan (with interest) later in life. It is also possible to lend early in life, which means that consumption can exceed income later. The amount of labor income the couple earns depends on the amount of time spent working by the husband and wife and t he wage rate each is paid.The model also allows for â€Å"non-labor income† in each period, which might reflect investment returns. The distinction between labor and non-labor income turns out to be rather interesting and important with respect to church attendance. Azzi and Ehrenberg’s analysis is complicated in some respects and simple in others. It is complicated because it considers consumption over several periods rather than just one, and it allows for â€Å"consumption† to depend on time (the h1t and h2t) as well as purchases of goods and services in the market (xt).The model is simple in that it does not consider the â€Å"supply side. † That is, the model simply assumes that the household can â€Å"buy† any amount that it likes of consumption goods (xt) and that there are no effective limits on religious participation (st). The power of the rational choice approach is that rational choice models tend to have lots of observable implications , some of which are novel. The Azzi and Ehrenberg model implies that: (i) The frequency of church attendance increases with age; †¢ (ii) Females attend church more frequently than males; †¢ (iii) Nonwhites attend church more frequently than whites; †¢ (iv) People who believe in an afterlife attend church more frequently; †¢ (v) Having a spouse of the same major religion increases participation; †¢ (vi) As health deteriorates church attendance declines; †¢ (vii) An increase in the number of pre-school age children present in the household reduces church attendance; †¢ (viii) An increase in the number of school-age children present in the household increases church attendance; (ix) Females’ hours devoted to religious activities will rise more rapidly with age than will the hours devoted by males to religious activities; †¢ (x) For males who show sharp earnings increases in their 20s, religious participation may first decline with age and then increase; †¢ (xi) An increase in nonlabor income will increase religious participation; and †¢ (xii) The effect of a proportionate shift in wages (say, a 10% increase in the present and all future periods) on church attendance is ambiguous. Many of these implications are not surprising, but (ix) would appear to be somewhat novel.Item (ii) means that 40 year old women will attend church more frequently than 40 year old men. Item (ix) means that the change (increase) in church participation associated with aging from 40 to 50 will be greater among women than among men. Item (ii) follows directly from the fact that females tend to have lower wages. Thus if one could find couples in which the wife earns more than the man, the model predicts for those couples that the wife will probably not be inclined to attend church more frequently. Also, allowing for an uncertain time of death may overturn (i): â€Å"†¦ nce an individual is faced with a relatively high probabilit y of death in a period it may become optimal for him to concentrate his religious participation as early as possible, since he may not survive to ‘invest’ in future periods. † (p. 38) 5. Several Brief Examples This section presents a brief overview of several applications of rational choice theory. Unlike the church attendance example above, in which the form of the utility function was written out explicitly, the discussions in this section for the most part present only brief descriptions of the relevant optimization problems and some of the resulting implications. A.Suicide Hamermesh and Soss (1974) develop a rational choice theory of suicide. They assume that the utility of an individual in any given period depends positively on â€Å"consumption† and negatively on â€Å"a technological relation describing the cost each period of maintaining [oneself] at some minimum level of subsistence. † (p. 85) â€Å"Consumption† is a function of age a nd of â€Å"permanent income,† which is a measure of current and expected future income. Individuals are assumed to vary exogenously (according to a probability distribution) in their distastes for suicide – that is, some individuals are more averse to suicide than others.This framework implies that â€Å"†¦ an individual kills himself when the total discounted lifetime utility remaining to him reaches zero. † (p. 85). Thus in this model we have a rational individual who is forward looking, considering not only his present utility but what his future utility is likely to be. If total utility over the rest of his life is higher with suicide and life ending in the present than it is with the continuation of life, suicide is the â€Å"rational† option. Here are some of the major implications of the model. (i) The suicide rate should rise with age. †¢ (ii) The suicide rate should fall with increases in permanent income[13] and decreases in the unemp loyment rate. †¢ (iii) The marginal absolute effect of permanent income on suicide declines as permanent income increases. The first two effects are by no means surprising, but the third effect is certainly by no means obvious ex ante (at least to me). (ii) means that suicide rates will fall as income rises. (iii) means that the effect of increases in income gets smaller the larger income is to begin with.A $10,000 raise is much more likely to prevent suicide if the person is earning $50,000 to begin with than if the person is earning $150,000. This is quite plausible, but the point is that it is not something most analysts would think about ex ante. B. Auto Safety Regulation. Peltzman (1975) considers the likely effects of â€Å"legally mandated installation of various safety devices[14] on automobiles. †[15] The devices in question for the most part were designed to reduce the damages caused by accidents rather than to reduce the likelihood that accidents occur. Peltzm an notes that the auto safety literature estimates the impact of afety mandates by assuming that (i) the mandates have no effect on the probability that an accident will occur, and (ii) the mandates have no effect on the voluntary demand for safety devices. In effect, the regulations were implemented based on analysis that assumed the same number and nature of accidents would occur, but that automobiles would be better equipped to protect drivers and passengers from injury and death. He notes that â€Å"[t]echnological studies imply that annual highway deaths would be 20 percent greater without legally mandated installation of various safety devices on automobiles. (p. 677) Peltzman considers the behavior of a typical driver and postulates quite reasonably that he or she is made worse off by traffic accidents – or, equivalently, that he or she benefits from safety. Peltzman also assumes, however, that the driver benefits from what he calls â€Å"driving intensity,† by which he means â€Å"more speed, thrills, etc. † (p. 681). Other things equal, the driver can obtain more driving intensity only by driving less safely. Thus the driver faces a trade-off between two goods, intensity and safety, in which more of one can be obtained only by giving up some of the other.This kind of trade-off is in standard fare for rational choice theorists. In basic consumer choice theory the consumer with a given income can obtain more of one good only if he or she consumes less of some other good (or goods). The standard consumer choice problem also considers what happens when the consumer’s income rises. Rational choice theory predicts that, in the absence of very unusual circumstances, the consumer will buy more of most goods when income rises. Put another way, it is typically not the case that a consumer will allocate one hundred percent of an increase in income to increased consumption of a single good.Income increases tend to be â€Å"spread aro und† over several goods. Peltzman argues that the imposition of mandated safety devices in automobiles is rather like an increase in income in the sense that the devices make it possible for drivers to obtain both more safety and more intensity. Technological studies in effect assume that drivers will respond by consuming only more safety, but rational choice theory indicates that drivers can also respond by consuming more intensity (that is, by driving less safely). The extent to which drivers choose between more safety and more intensity is ultimately an empirical question.Suppose drivers choose to increase consumption of both safety and intensity — which is what economists have come to expect in these kinds of situations. In this case, the rational choice model implies that the number of total driving accidents[16] should rise because of increased driving intensity, while the average amount of damage per accident – as reflected, say in the number of fatalities among passengers – should decrease because of the safety improvements. This means that it is actually possible for total traffic fatalities to rise as a result of the safety mandates!This would happen if the increase in the number of accidents is sufficiently large relative to the decrease in average damage per accident. Once again we have an example of a rational choice model yielding implications that are not obvious ex ante. The novel predictions here are that the imposition of auto safety mandates (i) should increase the occurrence of traffic accidents, and (ii) should decrease the relative frequency of accidents involving passenger fatalities, and (iii) may increase or decrease the total number of traffic fatalities.After extensive empirical testing based on several data sets, Peltzman concludes that â€Å"regulation appears not to have reduced highway deaths. † (p. 714). There is indeed some evidence that the number of deaths increased, but in most cases that ev idence is not strong. In any case, there is no evidence that the regulations decreased traffic fatalities. Peltzman also finds that the safety mandates were followed by an increase in the number of accidents involving pedestrians and by an increase in the number of accidents involving only property damage with no injury to vehicle occupants.A related paper by McCormick and Tollison (1984) considers the effect on arrest rates of an increase in the number of police officers. Rational choice theory indicates that the quality of law enforcement should not be judged by arrest rates alone. If the number of police officers increases and as a result the probability of arrest for any given crime increases, rational prospective criminals will see the expected cost of crime rise and therefore undertake fewer criminal acts.Total arrests reflect both the number of criminal acts (which should fall) and the percentage of criminal acts for which an arrest is made (which should rise). Total arrests rise only if the latter effect is stronger than the former. McCormick and Tollison test their theory using data from the Atlantic Coast Conference in men’s college basketball. In 1978, the conference increased the number of officials from two to three. In this context, one may think of officials as police officers and fouls called as arrests.McCormick and Tollison find that this 50 percent increase in the number of officials caused a 34 percent reduction in the number of fouls called (p. 229). When my son Aaron (now almost 5 years old) was an infant, he attended the Baylor Child Development Center during the day. In the room where the teacher changed diapers, there was a pad on the counter but no restraint of any kind (such as a belt or guard rail). When I asked the director about this, she said that there was no restraint because she (the director) did not want to give the teacher a false sense of security.With a belt or rail, the teacher might be tempted to walk away for â €Å"just a minute† to check on something in the room. Whether restraints increase or decrease changing table accidents is an empirical question, though Pelzman’s analysis suggests the director made the right decision. C. Addiction Stigler and Becker (1977) propose a rational choice theory of addiction, a theory subsequently elaborated by Becker and Murphy (1988). In this theory, â€Å"a person is potentially addicted to [some good] c if an increase in his current consumption of c increases his future consumption of c. (Becker and Murphy, 1988, p. 81) The key feature of these models is that a consumer’s utility in any given period depends not just on consumption in that period, but also on â€Å"consumption capital†. Consumption capital is essentially the consumer’s ability to enjoy a particular good, which depends on past consumption of the good and perhaps on other factors. If past consumption enhances current enjoyment ability, the addition is s aid to be beneficial. This might be the case, for example, with listening to classical music. The more one listens to classical music, the greater one’s capacity to appreciate it.Stigler and Becker note that beneficial consumption capital might also be positively influenced by education. Highly educated people might have a greater capacity to enjoy things like classical music, opera, and art. If past consumption reduces current enjoyment ability, the addition is said to be harmful. This is the case with substances such as heroin and other substances normally considered to be addictive. The more heroin a person consumes in the present, the less will be his or her future enjoyment (â€Å"high†) from any given amount of heroin consumption in the future. 17] The formal setup in Stigler and Becker (1977, p. 78) is relatively simple. First consider beneficial addiction – to, say, classical music. Consumer utility (U) depends positively on two goods, M (music appreciat ion) and Z (other goods): U = U(M, Z). Music appreciation depends positively on the time allocated to music listening â„ ¢ and on music consumption capital (Sm): M = M(tm, Sm). Music consumption capital at date j, Smj, depends positively on the time allocated to music consumption in the past, Mj-1, Mj-2, †¦. and positively (perhaps) on the person’s level of education at time j (denoted Ej): Smj = S(Mj-1, Mj-2, †¦ , Ej). The addition is beneficial if Smj depends on positively on the past values of M. Alternatively, for harmful addition we may replace M with H, where H denotes the consumption of a good such as heroin. In this case, consumption capital S depends negatively on past values of H. The elaborated model of Becker and Murphy (1988) views addictive behavior as a situation in which the consumption of a particular good begins to increase rapidly. [18] Their model has a number of implications. Perhaps he most interesting is their finding that the demand for ad dictive goods should be quite sensitive to permanent changes in price (where the â€Å"price† of illegal goods includes the expected costs associated with apprehension by authorities, as well as any foregone earnings that may result from becoming addicted and, say, unable to work), but not necessarily to temporary price changes. A second implication is that strong addictions, if they are to end, must end suddenly (â€Å"cold turkey†). â€Å"Rational persons end stronger addictions more rapidly than weaker ones. † (p. 692). Other implications are that â€Å"addicts often go on binges† (p. 75), â€Å"present-oriented individuals are potentially more addicted to harmful goods than future-oriented individuals† (p. 682), and â€Å"temporary events can permanently ‘hook’ rational persons to addictive goods† (p. 691). Stigler and Becker (1977) and Becker and Murphy (1988) do not perform empirical tests of their models of rational addic tion. Tests have been performed by other authors, however. Because good consumption data are not available for illegal substances, tests have focused on tobacco and caffeine. Tests based on tobacco consumption are reported by Becker, Grossman, and Murphy (1994), and Keeler, et. l. (1993). A test based on caffeine consumption is reported by Olekalns and Bardsley (1996). These tests are generally supportive of the rational addiction theory. Becker and Murphy (1988) note that with a simple extension their model can explain cycles of overeating and dieting. Their basic analysis assumes there is only one kind of consumption capital. Suppose that with respect to food there are instead two types of consumption capital, one of which is simply the person’s weight (which might be called â€Å"health capital†) and the other of which is â€Å"eating capital. That is, eating can be both harmful and beneficial in the senses defined above. As eating increases, health capital falls ( weight gain has detrimental effects on health) and eating capital rises (the capacity to enjoy food is greater the more one eats). Under appropriate conditions, utility maximization results in cycles of dieting and binging. [19] Rational addiction theory has been applied to the analysis of religious behavior – see Iannaccone (1984, 1990) and Durkin and Greeley (1991). Iannaccone (1998) summarizes this approach. Utility depends on â€Å"religious commodities† produced, the value of which depends on â€Å"religious human capital. The stock of religious human capital depends on time and money devoted to religious activities in the past. These models have the following predictions, â€Å"nearly all of which receive strong empirical support† (Iannaccone, 1998, p. 1481): †¢ Individuals tend to move toward the denominations and beliefs of their parents as they mature and start to make their own decisions about religion; †¢ People are more likely to switch de nominations early in life; †¢ People tend to marry within religions; if they do not, one spouse is likely to adopt the religion of the other.D. Racial Profiling Law enforcement authorities in many jurisdictions have been criticized in recent years for racial bias in their choice of cars to search for illegal drugs and other contraband. [20] The fact that police are more inclined to stop and search cars driven by members of certain minority groups is well established. Knowles, Persico, and Todd (2001) develop a rational choice model that â€Å"suggests an empirical test for distinguishing whether this disparity is due to racial prejudice or to the police’s objective to maximize arrests. In their model, the typical police officer â€Å"maximizes the total number of convictions minus a cost of searching cars. † (p. 209) Motorists â€Å"consider the probability of being searched in deciding whether to carry contraband. † (p. 209) At least some motorists percei ve a benefit to carrying contraband. If they do carry, their expected benefit is positive if they are not searched and negative (that is, there is a positive expected cost) if they are searched. The model implies that if police officers are not racially biased, the frequency of guilt among motorists conditional on being searched will be independent of race. 21] In their empirical analysis based on 1,590 searches on a stretch of Interstate 95 in Maryland between January 1995 and January 1999, Knowles, Persico, and Todd find support for this proposition. They interpret this result as â€Å"the absence of racial prejudice against African Americans† (p. 212). The fact remains, however, that African Americans are searched more frequently than whites. If this does not arise from racial bias by police officers, then why does it occur?One possibility noted by the authors is that â€Å"race may proxy for other variables that are unobservable by the policy officer and are correlated w ith both race and crime. Possible examples of such unobservables are the schooling level or the earnings potential of the motorist. † (p. 212) While one may quibble with some elements of this study, for our present purposes the main point is that the rational choice theory, at least potentially, yielded implications that allowed the analyst to gain some insight (if not a final resolution) into the issue of racial profiling. E. Congressional Influence on Military AssignmentsPrior to the 1960s, economic theory tended to view politicians and other government officials (bureaucrats) as disinterested observers and regulators of economic activity. A group of economics led by Nobel Laureate James Buchanan then developed a branch of economics known as public choice theory, which views government officials as self-interested maximizers. Goff and Tollison (1987) take a public choice approach to gain some understanding of casualties in the Vietnam War. The typical soldier is assumed to p refer not to be placed in risky combat situations, and this preference is shared by the soldier’s family.A solider (or more likely his family) might therefore try to gain a low-risk assignment by asking for intervention in military decisions by his Senator or Representative. Senators and Representatives are assumed to desire re-election, which implies a desire to please their constituencies. The ability of a Senator or Representative to have this kind of influence, however, varies according to committee assignments, ties to the military/industrial complex, etc. Goff and Tollison assume that political influence depends on seniority, with more seniority implying more influence.Taken together, all these assumptions have the straightforward implication that soldiers from states with more senior (and hence more influential) Senators and Representatives should, other things equal, have experienced fewer casualties in Vietnam than soldiers from states with less senior (and therefore less influential) Senators and Representatives. Their empirical analysis (using data from January 1961 to September 1972) supports the hypothesis: In the House, the Mississippi delegation had an average seniority of 27. 7, while Hawaii had an average seniority of 61. . [A seniority ranking of 1 indicates the member had the highest seniority in his or her party. ] In terms of lives, this represents about 6 fewer war deaths for every 100,000 of population in Mississippi relative to Hawaii. Ceteris paribus, this difference in House seniority leads to a 55 percent higher casualty rate for Hawaii than Mississippi. †¦ In the Senate, Arkansas had an average seniority of 6. 2, and Maryland had an average seniority of 45. 4. Other things equal †¦, this difference leads to an 86 percent higher casualty rate for Maryland than for Arkansas.In terms of lives, this translates into about 7 more war deaths for every 100,000 of population in Maryland than in Arkansas. (pp. 319-20) In this case, the value of the rational choice approach is not so much in the fact that it yields surprising answers to a well-established question, but that it suggests a unique question to ask in the first place. It is by no means obvious that someone not thinking about self-interested Senators and Representatives would even think to ask the question addressed by Goff and Tollison. F. Ideology and IntransigenceRoemer (1985) applies game theory to the analysis of political revolutions. Specifically, he presents a two-player game between â€Å"Lenin† and the â€Å"Tsar. † Lenin’s objective is to maximize the probability of revolution, while the Tsar’s objective is to minimize that probability. As in any game-theoretic setting, when making decisions each player keeps in mind how the other player might react. Lenin tries to create revolution by lining up coalitions, where people are induced to join a coalition with the promise of income redistribution.The Tsar tri es to prevent revolution by promising to punish anyone who participates in revolutionary activities (assuming the revolution attempt is unsuccessful). Increased penalties reduce the number of individuals who are likely to join the coalition but increase the revolutionary fervor of those who do. An individual will join a coalition attempting to overthrow the Tsar if the expected benefit to him or her of doing so exceeds the expected cost. There is of course some uncertainty about the outcome. Roemer’s results include the following: it is shown that various â€Å"tyrannical† aspects of the Tsar’s strategy, and â€Å"progressive† aspects of Lenin’s strategy need not flow from ideological precommitments, but are simply good optimizi